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Kubbig, Roberta Mulas, and Christian Weidlich et al. It is too optimistic to think that existing dilemmas can be easily resolved in this new and changing environment, but the Arab Spring may provide strong momentum for change. Saudi rules and principles to the establishment Arabia itself also witnessed demonstra- of political power. In up of the established regime, the transition Jordan continuing protests have already to democracy including the displacement led to three changes of cabinet and have of the authoritarian regime and the process begun to be directed at the monarch, of institutionalization , and democratic King Abdullah II, and his family.
In fact, transformation is of the Arab Spring not necessarily triggered by revolutionary attempts: Our in Arab countries. As a result, these countries are plagued witnessed sporadic demonstrations and by violence and political instability. As the have implemented partial reforms. To case studies will show, the countries of the complete the picture, we will also provide region are in different phases of their trans- a brief excursus on the impact of the Arab formation process.
Some have successfully Spring upon Israel, Palestine 6, and Turkey. Sobering Transition more willing to discuss regional and global issues, especially matters of arms control? The demonstrations in Tunisia7 began in Historical evidence suggests that if new December and resulted in a wave of political forces previously not involved social and political unrest that led to the in the decision-making process come to ousting of longtime President Ben Ali power, it takes time for them to develop an in January Gannouchi, obtained 37 percent of the vote.
Ennahda, the center-left Congress for the Republic, and the left-leaning 1. What is the current state of political Ettakatol. What impact does the current domestic held in March Tunisia is responding to the demands for 3. What is the calls for improved living conditions its stance with regard to disarmament as well as social and economic equality. In spite of the change in political leadership, The countries selected for the case studies Tunisian foreign policy is not likely to provide a broad overview of the transfor- fundamentally alter since the coalition mation processes associated with the Arab partners agree that the partnership with Spring.
However, a more active initiatives on disarmament. Even if its defense budget a very fragile Tunisian economic recovery. Finally, it is likely to support than its own narrow ones. The Although the Arab Spring uprisings began rhetoric against Israel is likely to be much in Tunisia, Egypt and Tahrir Square in harsher than that of previous Tunisian particular has become the symbol of these governments.
Indeed, there is a consensus events. Three factors contributed to the that links normalization of relations with protests which began in January Second, a dramatic transition.
However, the new institutions change in demographics occurred: This resulted in growing Tunisia. Particularly the interim president unemployment especially among the middle emphasized in meetings with Jewish class youth, deteriorating health and educa- community leaders and in public speeches tional services, and imbalances in the existing that the Jewish population is an integral social structures. Third, the fact that after part of the Tunisian people. With regards to more proximate causes for the uprisings. Tunisia has the Additional The parliamentary elections in November Protocol to its safeguards agreement with were allegedly rigged and virtually the International Atomic Energy Agency eliminated the opposition.
Furthermore, the had already been active since She has new virtual reality. Mubarak was slow to react to the protests and was unwilling to use violence to crush the riots, resulting in his ousting on February 11, Presidential elections were International Affairs Center. His prior diplomatic assignments include Indonesia, won the second round of voting against Singapore, Brunei, United Arab Emirates, and Japan.
His write the new Egyptian constitution. Egypt among the army, which is keen Dr. This is a precarious balance, with each group pursuing disparate aims and cultivating different modes of operation. Furthermore, the country is stuck in a Lars Berger is a Lecturer in Politics and Contemporary History struggle between two schools of thoughts: His research interest focuses dawla madaniyya.
The economy may prove on Islamism, Islamist terrorism, foreign policy of Arab countries, one of the greatest political challenges. This bility, and among Muslims the Sunni-Shia accord has been domestically contro- animosity is heating up. Since democracy versial since its conclusion in The means majority rule, respecting the rights attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo in of these minorities will be an important September increased instability in the test for the new Egyptian government. Nevertheless, the Egyptian sight since neither the military nor the military and President Morsi have so far Islamists are prepared to cede power.
In any event, it is unlikely the unexpected move by President Morsi that the accord would be abolished, though to send Minister of Defense, Hussein it may be revised upon proposals coming Tantawi, and Chief of Staff, Sami Anan, from Egypt or re-negotiated. The fact that into retirement. It remains an open question how Arab states. Its position is that unless Israel Zone.
Under becomes a party to the NPT, Egypt is not the new government, these policies have willing to take on any further disarmament already come under revision. Khalil indications of dire social conditions and is a physicist by training and holds a PhD in theoretical physics resentment against the dictatorial regime, from Reading University, UK. He served as chair of the National was unique even in Arab Spring terms. Second, mission to Turkey and Cyprus in His work combines supporting such outside intervention. Fourth, various international and foreign relations issues of the Gulf the uprisings led to a full-scale civil war that Cooperation Council states with a particular interest in GCC-EU ended with the violent death of the former relations.
Koch currently manages a two-year project named dictator. October , which has since been running the country through its executive committee. Elections for a national assembly which will Elie Podeh is Professor and chair of the Department of Islamic be charged with the task of drafting a consti- and Middle Eastern Studies at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. In contrast to University in In his research and teaching, Prof. Shaban is a expected to unite forces and challenge the Senior Economic Advisor with over 15 years experience in liberals by presenting them as a threat to the management consultancy and private sector development, and future of Islam in Libya.
He is a member of the Observatory a number of unresolved issues: Islamists of European Foreign Policy and participates in different transna- vs.
Liberals, former regime members vs. Furthermore, clear that instead of democracy, a new the country is party to the BTWC and neo-patrimonial system is in the making, the CWC. However, Libya had previously and no genuinely new political force has signaled to the OPCW — the Organization emerged. At the same time, most observers for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons — were surprised to see that the elections went that it would not be able to eliminate all its smoothly despite tribal divisions and that stockpiles by April Nevertheless, since Libya is not a primary It remains to be seen what impact the actor in WMD-related hard security issues, political transformation is going to have it will be at best a nominal supporter of the on Libyan foreign relations aside from relevant arms control negotiations.
Libya is the fact that they will most likely be less unique among the countries involved with provocative and less sensational. Libya However, it is likely that the government projects threats in different directions: Libya is one of the few countries that has deployed chemical Yemen: Protesters initially opposed to engage in WMD activities in the short governmental plans to modify the or medium term. They also opposed regime did pursue WMD programs mostly high unemployment, poor economic chemical weapons , Libya signed and conditions, and widespread corruption.
Today, the country mix of political maneuvering: It has also signed the propaganda.
Yet, civil servants, and prominent politi- the Yemeni foreign policy will continue cians. Therefore, the uprising gained un- to strive for membership of the GCC and precedented momentum, but at the same its partnership within the international time it became dominated by the defected coalition to combat terrorism. This view was emphasized Cooperation Council, which included during the meeting of Yemeni Foreign immunity for Saleh and his family Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qirbi and the members, initially received broad support non-resident ambassador of Finland to from opposition groups.
However, its political injured Saleh who was evacuated to Saudi future could easily shape the initiative on Arabia for medical treatment, but remained several levels: Yemen might store chemical unwilling to resign.
This report assesses the uprisings in six countries and the impact on power shifts Research Areas The themes IDEAS research focuses on across our projects. Dodge, Toby () After the Arab Spring: power shift in the Middle East?: conclusion: the. Middle East IDEAS reports - special reports, Kitchen, Nicholas (ed.).
In , turmoil in Yemen produced However, the ongoing violence between a political vacuum. King Hamad declared a freedom and equality for all Bahrainis. Its chairman, Mahmoud Cherif young Bahrainis to camp in the center of Bassiouni, concluded in a televised speech in Manama. But the transformation process was completely in the hands of the ruling Syria: The opposition agreed to this initiative with No Clear Prospects since Saudi Arabia, as proven by its military intervention, was unwilling to allow a fellow After the authoritarian regimes in Tunisia ruling family in the Gulf to fall from power.
Since then President Bashar Al-Assad. The increasingly violent without game-changing devel- On March 9, , hundreds of thousands response of the Syrian Army, deployed opments in Bahrain, which again protested in one of the biggest anti- by the president to suppress the initially government rallies to date. The kingdom usually takes positions in line with the GCC, especially violence.
Manama hosts the These modest reforms were greeted with headquarters of the U. Fifth Fleet and widespread skepticism. The overarching goal of the opposition forces With an eye on the Islamic Republic, the is to remove Assad from power. In the country — infamously to the towns of addition to including its member countries, Homs and Hama, among others — while the the plan calls for an incremental integration capitol of Damascus and the city of Aleppo of the other three Gulf states, Iran, Iraq, remained relatively peaceful until July The international reaction to the Syrian It has signed the Additional Protocol to its crisis has been mixed.
It can be assumed that had many supporters.
Conference and his team the following factors should form a checklist of issues The Arab Spring and the requiring immediate attention: It can be assumed that had many supporters. Moreover, Syria will likely have imposed sanctions on the regime be on the agenda of the conference. The political algebra of global value change. The ruling not publicly take up common cause with family has maintained its legitimacy and Israel. President Bashir announces he will not seek another term in [] President Bashir nevertheless chosen as Ruling Party candidate for election [].
What resolution, which was vetoed by Russia seems likely is that a continuation of the and China. It is clear that the Syrian While the humanitarian situation keeps government is primarily concerned with getting worse, the international community ongoing domestic violence and that little remains divided about what path to take. Moreover, Syria will likely have imposed sanctions on the regime be on the agenda of the conference.
The and called for Assad to resign. More to interfere in the internal affairs of other importantly, the country is suspected of states. The Syrian government in the Mediterranean and is an important at some point threatened to use these market for Russian arms. Yet, it ordered the facilities be put under In the region, Syria has few supporters: In parallel, President Assad and Tehran even provided, fears have been raised that these agents in addition to military aid, economic could be used by the regime against the support to ease the impact of sanctions.
By contrast, Saudi Arabia and Qatar spoke These chemical capabilities, together with in favor of arming the opposition in order its arsenal of mostly short-range Scud to increase its chances of success. Saudi authority and leadership in the Gulf. Cautious power, illustrated by its program to acquire Top-Down Transformation nuclear capabilities and its willingness to meddle in the affairs of other countries, The Arab Spring events are seen in the has led Saudi Arabia — in spite of its usual states of the Gulf Cooperation Council in cautiousness — to act openly to stabilize general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, with neighboring countries.
The raised concerns not only in the Gulf, but in ruling monarchies dislike the uncertainty the wider Arab region as well.
In the past decade or been inspired by the action of their fellow so, it has undertaken several initiatives to Arabs and as a result there is a certain resolve inter-Arab issues. In this capacity it degree of hope that the ruling families will has recently been challenged by an increas- now begin the process of implementing ingly active Qatari foreign policy. Council on Foreign Relations. Protests in Egypt and unrest in Middle East - as it happened. Archived from the original on 26 January Retrieved 26 January The Power of the Street: Causes, Consequences and Recommendations for Mitigation, https: Academic Peace Orchestra Middle East.
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Issue 1 First Online: Abstract PDF References Article Recommendations Abstract In the paper the reasons of outbreak of conflict in Syria at the background of social and political situation of the Arab world at the beginning of 21st century were presented. Arab Spring ; Arab awakening ; Middle East ; civil war ; democratisation. Target Group researchers in the fields of political and financial law.